Hoops Nerd

The Hoops Nerd Ratings are explained here. As of the approximate beginning of conference play in early January, the preseason projections are disregarded and current season data is the sole input. Offense and defense are, by this point in the season, regressed separately and then reunited to form the Hoops Nerd Ratings. The Hoops Nerd Ratings are expressed in plus or minus points per 67 possessions.

1. Duke (Last Week: 1)
Hoops Nerd Rating: +23.3
The Blue Devils hold onto the top spot for yet another week, having beaten Temple (comfortably) and Virginia (handily). Between Coach Krzyzewski moving into sixth spot on the all-time coaching wins list and the apparent return of the Duke's head cheerleader, things are going very well in Durham.

2. North Carolina (2)
+22.4
North Carolina played two in-state opponents last week and had more difficulty with the one from the Big South (NC Asheville) than with the one from the ACC (NC State). According to Ken Pomeroy's numbers, the Tar Heels have four of the nation's top 33 offensive performers (minimum 20% of team's possessions used): Wayne Ellington (ranked number 5), Tyler Hansbrough (8), Danny Green (15), and Ty Lawson (33).

3. Kansas (3)
+22.0
The Jayhawks beat Loyola Maryland, Oklahoma and Nebraska last week, each without inordinate difficulty. Kansas dominates the Big Twelve in a way that few other teams have dominated their respective conferences this season; the 4.6 gap in Hoops Nerd Rating between Kansas and the Big Twelve's second highest (Texas A&M) is very high relative to most, but is notably surpassed by Xavier (8.2 over Duquesne), Memphis (9.4 over UAB), Butler (8.1 over Valparaiso), and Drake (7.5 over Creighton).

4. Marquette (5)
+21.1
Beating Seton Hall and throttling Notre Dame comprise just the sort of week needed for a Big East team to move up a spot in the Hoops Nerd Ratings. I have Marquette ranked fourth, Pomeroy has them third, Sagarin has them sixth in his "predictor" ratings, but both the AP and ESPN/USA Today have them thirteenth. What gives? Two of those five rating systems take a myopic view of win-loss records and routinely neglect context, can you guess which two?

5. Tennessee (4)
+20.9
The Volunteers were leap-frogged by Marquette through no fault of their own, a fact to which this week's victims Ole Miss and South Carolina would undoubtedly attest. Is the New Tyler Smith a product of context (Iowa last season, Tennessee this) or should his absurd degree of improvement be attributed internally? Last season, he had an Offensive Rating of 100, this season he is at 130. Some context: only one current player on the Vols roster has an offensive rating under 100, conversely, Smith's 130 rating is 17th nationally this season. When considering whether this improvement is situational or not, remember that Offensive Rating is a tempo-free stat, so account has already been taken of the fact that the Hawkeyes are a much slower team.

6. Wisconsin (9)
+20.2
The Badgers were able to advance in the Hoops Nerd Ratings by doing what only Duke, Maryland, Arizona, Miami (OH), Tennessee St., Ohio St., Penn St., and Indiana have done this season: beat the Illini. Coach Ryan gets a little passive-aggressive with the refs here, simultaneously attributing some of Michael Flowers' recent struggles to unwhistled moving screens and insisting that he's not complaining about the non-calls.

7. West Virginia (7)
+19.4
West Virginia split games with Syracuse and Louisville last week. Backup Quarterback Jarrett Brown has joined the team, though maybe he shouldn't play the Pitt game...

8. Drake (14)
+19.0
Hoops Nerd Ratings top-ten-virgins Drake moved into this lofty position by virtue of wins over Missouri St. and Indiana St.. As I am nearly certain that Kyle Whelliston will point out within the next few hours (when the Week 9 State of the Mid-Majors will likely be revealed), Drake is the top Mid Major team in the country. The Bulldog triumvirate of non-power conference teams (Gonzaga, Butler, Drake) is now firmly established.

9. Georgetown (10)
+18.9
The Hoops Nerd's Excel sheet updates every Monday morning, so for now we will ignore last night's loss to Pitt. With that in mind, it was wins over DePaul and Connecticut which allowed Georgetown to advance in this week's ratings. The Hoyas play their best under a full moon.

10. UCLA (16)
+18.7
UCLA (along with Drake) was the biggest mover into this week's top ten, advancing six spots on the strength of wins over both PAC Ten teams from Washington. These guys loved the Washington St. game, described in the aforelinked article as the best offensive one of Kevin Love's young career.

Hoops Nerd Ratings Teams 11 - 30

11. Indiana (12), +18.5
12. Michigan St. (6), +18.0
13. Clemson (8), +17.9
14. Texas A&M (15), +17.4
15. Xavier (11), +17.3
16. Mississippi (13), +17.1
17. Memphis (19), +16.2
18. Florida (18), +15.8
19. Notre Dame (17), +15.6
20. Pittsburgh (22), +15.5
21. Washington St. (28), +15.1
22. Mississippi St. (26), +14.6
23. Utah (NR), +14.5
24. Louisville (NR), +14.3
25. Connecticut (NR), +14.3
26. Ohio St. (NR), +14.2
27. Arkansas (21), +14.2
28. Texas (20), +14.1
29. New Mexico (23), +14.0
30. Missouri (NR), +13.6

New this Week: Utah, Louisville, Connecticut, Ohio St., Missouri
Disappearing this Week: Syracuse, Butler, Gonzaga, Minnesota, Oklahoma
On the Cusp: Kansas St., Gonzaga, Butler, Oklahoma, Minnesota