Hoops Nerd

The Hoops Nerd Ratings, are due for their first update of the season. Not much has changed since the preseason ratings, of course, but two teams have dropped from the Hoops Nerd Ratings Top 30.

Remember, the Hoops Nerd Ratings are expressed in + or - points per 67 possessions. Current season data (heavily regressed!) is given low weight at this early point in the season. The Hoops Nerd Ratings are fully explained here.

1. Kansas (Last Week: 1)
Hoops Nerd Rating: +23.4
Not much to see here. Brandon Rush is back and the Jayhawks have predictably beaten up on Louisiana-Monroe, UMKC and something called Washburn (the weakest schedule this side of Jayhawks Football). Things get tougher beginning on Sunday when Arizona steps into the Phog.

2. Michigan St. (2)
Rating: +22.2
The Spartans notched easy victories over Louisiana-Monroe and Chicago St., but they'll be acutely tested about three hours from now when they face the Missouri Tigers in Kansas City. Luckily for Michigan St., the exhibition loss to Grand Valley St. and near-loss to Michigan Tech are not considered here. Drew Neitzel is the small-sample-size hero so far; he is 6 for 9 from three-point range and has 13 assists to one turnover.

3. Georgetown (3)
Rating: +22.1
William & Mary posed more of a challenge to the Hoyas than did Michigan, but at any rate they are undefeated on the young season. Wednesday's trip to Muncie, Indiana to play Ball State has a compelling and well-documented storyline - I'll be watching.

4. North Carolina (4)
Rating: +21.4
The Tar Heels are tied with UCLA atop the Coach's Poll, but are three spots below that in the Hoops Nerd Ratings. Only two points per 67 possessions separate North Carolina from Kansas in the rankings, and as the season goes on and the current data is weighed more heavily, the Heels will have an opportunity to quickly close the gap. Yes it's a hackneyed and stale phrase, but UNC layed the smack down* on Iona.
* narrowly chosen over "opened up a can".

5. Duke (5)
Rating: +21.2
The more possessions that there are in a game, the truer the result - this is a matter of sample size. Intuitively, we all know this; if a high school team played the Boston Celtics in a one-possession game, there is at least some chance that the high school team could win. In a ten possession game, there might be some tiny probability of the Celts losing, and in a 100 possession game the high school team would have no chance. So: fewer possessions means more upsets. In a related story, Duke (the 203rd fastest team in D1 last season) plays Princeton (the slowest in D1) tonight in Maui.

6. Louisville (8)
Rating: +19.5
The first big mover in this week's Hoops Nerd Ratings, the Cardinals leaped over Memphis and UCLA. In bleaker news, the schedule is about to get tougher (tougher than Hartford and Jackson St. you ask? Yes.) and David Padgett is out for at least ten weeks with a knee injury. With Padgett gone, Louisville is one Big Mac Extra Value Meal away from having no offensive rebounding at all.

7. Memphis (7)
Rating: +19.4
Memphis beat Connecticut in a Hoops Nerd Clash of the Titans, and also has a win over Oklahoma. The Tigers' schedule has been tough, and will continue to be so until the new year, relative to other top ten teams, presumably to compensate for their being in Conference USA. Andy Katz has a pretty good assessment of Memphis.

8. UCLA (6)
Rating: +19.2
The Bruins are undefeated but the first real test tips off tonight when they face Maryland in Kansas City. While the nation is focused on the battle of which Los Angeles freshman with garner the most pun-invoking headlines ("Hold the Mayo", "All You Need is Love", etc.), UCLA coach Howland is doing a laudable job recruiting the next crop.

9. Wisconsin (12)
Rating: +19.0
The Badgers won four games last week, and the closest one was a 28 point drubbing of IPFW. The Hoops Nerd is looking forward to next Tuesday's Wisconsin @ Duke game.

10. Florida (16)
Rating: +18.9
The Gators are the biggest mover in this week's Hoops Nerd Ratings, up six spots. Plenty of bandwidth has been dedicated to the discussion of talent lost from last year's team, but not to worry: when football season is over, the former contributions of Jaokim Noah, Al Horford, Corey Brewer and Taurean Green can be easily replaced by Tim Tebow.

Hoops Nerd Ratings Teams 11 - 30

11. Clemson (11), +18.6
12. Texas A&M (10), +18.3
13. Tennessee (9), +17.5
14. Arkansas (13), +17.3
15. Kentucky (14), +17.1
16. Texas (19), +16.2
17. Notre Dame (23), +16.0
18. Southern Illinois (18), +16.0
19. Marquette (15), +16.0
20. Indiana (27), +15.9
21. Mississippi St. (24), +15.9
22. West Virginia (29), +15.5
23. Pittsburgh (21), +15.4
24. Ohio St. (17), +14.8
25. Oregon (25), +14.8
26. North Carolina St. (20), +14.7
27. Xavier (26), +14.7
28. Florida St. (22), +14.6
29. Virginia (NR), +14.2
30. Washington St. (NR), +14.2

Dropped: Maryland, Illinois