Hoops Nerd

This is the second update to the initial Hoops Nerd Ratings. You can find those pre-season ratings here.

Remember, the Hoops Nerd Ratings are expressed in + or - points per 67 possessions. Current season data (heavily regressed!) is given low weight at this early point in the season. The Hoops Nerd Ratings are fully explained here.

1. Kansas (Last Week: 1)
Hoops Nerd Rating: +21.7
Having beaten both Northern Arizona (handily) and Arizona (not so handily) last week, Kansas maintains its position atop the Hoops Nerd Ratings. Jayhawk fans are still pretty focused on football, but the basketball squad is the real national title contender.

2. Michigan St. (2)
Rating: +21.7
The narrow margin of the win over Oakland is of greater concern than the neutral-court loss to UCLA. Both the UCLA game and the win over Missouri (in the semi-finals of the same tournament) could have an impact on tournament seeding.

3. Duke (5)
Rating: +21.7
Mere hundredths of a point separate the Blue Devils from the top spot. Wins in Maui over Hoops Nerd Ratings top 30 cohorts Illinois and Marquette are duly impressive. In this space last week, I wrote about the relatively high probability of an upset in a game with relatively few possessions, using as an example that night's Duke vs. Princeton game. I was wrong on a couple of fronts: Duke blew-out the Tigers, and the Blue Devils are playing at a higher-than-expected (at least by me) pace, 48th quickest in D1 according to Ken Pomeroy's adjusted stats.

4. North Carolina (4)
Rating: +21.6
Status quo for the Tar Heels, authors of an expected blow-out of South Carolina St. and expected moderately-sized wins over Old Dominion and BYU. John Gasaway wants to ensure that you appreciate the perennial quality of UNC's defense.

5. Georgetown (3)
Rating: +20.9
Just how grounded and stoic does one have to be to react to a nine-point road win over the program from which one's brother resigned as head coach among much controversy, with a quote like "Free throws and turnovers hurt us... [w]e've got to take care of that. I don't think we were flustered, we just didn't execute the way we were supposed to."?

6. Tennessee (13)
Rating: +20.0
Lose to Texas and move up seven spots? There are two reasons. Firstly, the Vols did beat West Virginia and lay unholy waste to Middle Tennessee St. this week. Secondly, by virtue of the way that the Hoops Nerd Ratings work, ratings within a given conference are zero-sum, so very poor weeks for Florida and Arkansas have had a positive impact on the ratings of Tennessee and Kentucky.

7. UCLA (8)
Rating: +19.8
Already without Darren Collison, James Keefe and Michael Roll, Bruins fans were relieved to learn that Alfred Aboya will be able to play through his fractured orbital bone, likely with some really cool goggles. The win over Michigan St. was uniquely viewed by the Hoops Nerd Ratings as an upset.

8. Wisconsin (9)
Rating: +19.5
These ratings would look very fondly at a road-win over Duke tomorrow evening in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. When is a returning starter not a returning starter? When he's on the bench - senior guard Michael Flowers started every game last season but is in the sixth-man role this season.

9. Louisville (6)
Rating: +19.5
Well that didn't go as planned. BYU perpetrated a rude pre-emptive strike against what was to be a North Carolina vs. Louisville final in the Las Vegas Invitational. The pre-conference-play schedule is peppered with BYU-style better-than-you-might-think competition, including Miami (OH), Dayton and New Mexico St., so the Padgettless Cardinals had better be on guard.

10. Kentucky (15)
Rating: +19.1
North Carolina's trip to Rupp Arena this Saturday will provide the hosts with an opportunity to move further up these rankings.

Hoops Nerd Ratings Teams 11 - 30

11. Memphis (7), +18.7
12. Clemson (11), +18.6
13. Texas (16), +18.4
14. Texas A&M (12), +18.2
15. Marquette (19), +17.7
16. Florida (10), +17.5
17. Pittsburgh (23), +17.5
18. Arkansas (14), +17.2
19. Xavier (27), +16.1
20. Southern Illinois (18), +15.9
21. West Virginia (22), +15.8
22. Washington St. (30), +15.4
23. Butler (NR), +15.2
24. Ohio St. (24), +15.1
25. Florida St. (28), +15.0
26. Indiana (20), +14.9
27. Notre Dame (17), +14.9
28. Mississippi St. (21), +14.9
29. Illinois (NR), +14.5
30. Missouri (NR), +14.5

New this Week: Butler, Illinois, Missouri
Disappearing this Week: Oregon, North Carolina St., Virginia
On the Cusp: Oregon, North Carolina St., Maryland, BYU, Connecticut