Hoops Nerd

Extended Holiday Break ending in 3...2...1...

This is the season's first set of Hoops Nerd Ratings that completely disregard preseason projections - the weight assigned to the current season is now 100%. The preseason projections did not separate offense from defense, but instead was built by one single +/- points per 67 possessions number. Now, free from the shackles of those crude projections, offense and defense are treated as the insular categories that they are.

The Hoops Nerd Ratings are explained here. Since the preseason projections are now disregarded, and offense and defense are calculated separately, the regression model in the aforelinked explanation reigns in two different types (offense and defense) of aberrant performances. The Hoops Nerd Ratings are expressed in plus or minutes points per 67 possessions.

1. Duke (Last Ratings [12/10]: 1)
Hoops Nerd Rating: +25.8
Best Fall 2007 Win: Marquette
Worst Fall 2007 Loss: Pittsburgh
Fall 2007 MVP: Jon Scheyer

2. Marquette (8)
HNR: +20.8
Best Win: Wisconsin
Worst Loss: Duke
MVP: Lazar Hayward

3. North Carolina (4)
HNR: +20.7
Best Win: Ohio St.
Worst Loss: n/a
MVP: Tyler Hansbrough

4. Kansas (2)
HNR: +20.4
Best Win: Arizona
Worst Loss: n/a
MVP: Mario Chalmers

5. West Virginia (6)
HNR: +20.0
Best Win: New Mexico St.
Worst Loss: Oklahoma
MVP: Alex Ruoff

6. Tennessee (3)
HNR: +20.0
Best Win: West Virginia
Worst Loss: Texas
MVP: Tyler Smith

7. Michigan St. (5)
HNR: +19.5
Best Win: Texas
Worst Loss: UCLA
MVP: Drew Neitzel

8. Wisconsin (7)
HNR: +18.8
Best Win: Texas
Worst Loss: Marquette
MVP: Joe Krabbenhoft

9. Indiana (20)
HNR: +18.7
Best Win: Illinois St.
Worst Loss: Xavier
MVP: D.J. White

10. Georgetown (12)
HNR: +17.9
Best Win: Alabama
Worst Loss: Memphis
MVP: Roy Hibbert

Hoops Nerd Ratings Teams 11 - 30

11. Mississippi (24), +17.9
12. Notre Dame (22), +17.8
13. New Mexico (NR), +17.3
14. Clemson (15), +17.0
15. Xavier (13), +17.0
16. Drake (NR), +16.7
17. Texas A&M (19), +16.5
18. Pittsburgh (17), +15.4
19. Arkansas (11), +15.2
20. Florida (18), +14.9
21. Texas (10), +14.8
22. Memphis (16), +14.7
23. Arizona (NR), +14.6
24. UCLA (9), +14.5
25. Syracuse (NR), +14.4
26. South Carolina (NR), +14.3
27. Florida St. (21), +14.1
28. Minnesota (NR), +14.0
29. Gonzaga (NR), +13.9
30. Oklahoma (NR), +13.9

New this Week: New Mexico, Drake, Arizona, Syracuse, South Carolina, Minnesota, Gonzaga, Oklahoma.
Disappearing this Week: Louisville, Butler, Kentucky, Creighton, Illinois, Washington St., George Mason, BYU.
On the Cusp: Mississippi St., Creighton, Washington St., Connecticut, Butler.

The Hoops Nerd rankings will not be updated this week, basically because of the dearth of games during Finals Week. I will be around later in the week with some other stuff...

This is the fourth update to the initial Hoops Nerd Ratings. You can find those pre-season ratings here.

Remember, the Hoops Nerd Ratings are expressed in + or - points per 67 possessions. Current season data (heavily regressed!) is given more weight as the season progresses. The Hoops Nerd Ratings are fully explained here.

1. Duke (Last Week: 1)
Hoops Nerd Rating: +23.8
By adding a thunderous beat-down of Michigan to its resume, Duke is able to maintain its spot atop the Ratings. As has been written in this space before (and as Jonah Keri points out), the biggest difference between last season's Blue Devils and this iteration is that they are faster, playing at the 24th highest adjusted pace in the country.

2. Kansas (2)
Rating: +21.6
The Jayhawks beat up on Eastern Washington (now Stuckey-free and terrible!) and DePaul last week. Hopefully somebody will get Kansas guard Brandon Rush a day-planner book this holiday season.

3. Tennessee (3)
Rating: +20.7
Tennessee had a closer brush with the Mocs than they likely would have expected. The Hoops Nerd Ratings are structured in such a way (for a description of the innards, read here) that if the Volunteers can maintain the healthy margin established between themselves and the rest of the SEC, then they will likely remain very high in the overall ratings.

4. North Carolina (4)
Rating: +20.5
The Tar Heels are 8 - 0 for the first time this century, after blowing out Penn last week. While the prevailing assumption in Chapel Hill is likely that UNC will enter conference play undefeated, the Tar Heels will face four consecutive better-than-one-might-think opponents from December 22nd to January 2: UCSB (+6.9 Hoops Nerd Rating), Nevada (+7.7), Valparaiso (+5.3), and Kent St. (+10.1).

5. Michigan St. (5)
Rating: +20.3
Michigan St. scored two decent non-conference wins last week, over Bradley and Brigham Young (the Spartans were underdogs in the latter). Izzo's is the top offensive rebounding team in the country (47.3 OR%, per kenpom), thanks primarily to Goran Suton (18.0), Raymar Morgan (14.1), and Marquise Gray (12.7).

6. West Virginia (13)
Rating: +20.2
The Mountaineers won two blowouts last week, over Auburn and Duquesne. West Virginia is currently ranked number one in the Pomeroy Ratings, but is stuck in the "also receiving votes" category in the Associated Press Poll (fourth listed in that category, so I suppose that makes them 29th). They are steadily climbing the Hoops Nerd Ratings because (a) they are staying ahead of the Big East pack in terms of efficiency, and (b) each week, current season data is given more weight relative to the pre-season ratings.

7. Wisconsin (9)
Rating: +19.8
The Badgers (having roundly beaten Wofford and narrowly lost to Marquette) are yet another example of a team that is looked more kindly upon by objective rating systems than subjective ones (35th in the AP, 5th in the KP), but for a slightly different reason than West Virginia. Wisconsin has two high profile losses (Duke, Marquette), but has absolutely trounced all other competition. To wit: against the six other opponents (IPFW, Savannah St., Florida A&M, Colorado, Georgia, Wofford), the Badgers have notched an average margin of victory of 32.5 points. The difference in how ratings systems view Wisconsin is rooted in how the systems account for margin of victory. Consider the two rating systems used by Jeff Sagarin, ELO Chess (which is only concerned with which teams beat which teams regardless of margin of victory) and Predictor (which takes degree of victory into account): Wisconsin ranks 35th in the ELO Chess and 13th in the Predictor. Not surprisingly, I'm with Pomeroy/Predictor, not AP/ELO Chess, on this one. While the AP (and ELO Chess) furtively tosses out a win over Savannah St. as meaningless, the truth is that there is still valuable information there, because beating Savannah St. by 47 points (as the Badgers did) is better than beating them by significantly less than that (like Colorado, Creighton and Northwestern have).

8. Marquette (10)
Rating: +19.7
The win over Wisconsin was helpful, and the loss to Duke is looking less and less objectionable as the weeks pass. If Marquette loses again in 2007, something will have gone horribly, horribly wrong, as their four remaining opponents this year are Sacramento St., IPFW, Coppin St., and Savannah St.

9. UCLA (7)
Rating: +19.4
The Bruins needed to overcome an 18 point deficit to win against ambitiously-scheduling Davidson (a team that just can't get over the hump: the Wildcats nearly beat North Carolina and Duke, before blowing the big lead against UCLA). Russell Westbrook (he of the award-winning haircut) is still playing a key role even after the return of Darren Collison.

10. Texas (6)
Rating: +18.9
The Longhorns are unbeaten and will likely remain so until December 22nd, when they face Michigan St. D.J. Augustin ranks in the top 100 nationally in Offensive Rating, Effective Field Goal Percentage, and Assist Rate (all courtesy of kenpom), which essentially makes him the perfect point guard.

Hoops Nerd Ratings Teams 11 - 30

11. Arkansas (18), +18.7
12. Georgetown (8), +18.5
13. Xavier (16), +17.6
14. Louisville (11), +17.5
15. Clemson (14), +17.4
16. Memphis (12), +17.1
17. Pittsburgh (19), +16.4
18. Florida (17), +16.3
19. Texas A&M (20), +16.3
20. Indiana (21), +16.2
21. Florida St. (24), +15.8
22. Notre Dame (23), +15.8
23. Butler (22), +15.0
24. Mississippi (NR), +14.9
25. Kentucky (15), +14.5
26. Creighton (NR), +14.5
27. Illinois (28), +14.4
28. Washington St. (25), +14.4
29. George Mason (26), +14.1
30. BYU (29), +14.1

New this Week: Mississippi, Creighton
Disappearing this Week: Southern Illinois, Mississippi St.
On the Cusp: Missouri, Stanford, Oregon, Mississippi St., Maryland

Clash of the Titans (the matchup between two teams with the highest combined Hoops Nerd Rating): Creighton (+12.7) lost at Xavier (+17.5), 79-66. On the court, Xavier point guard Drew Lavender controlled the game, with 10 assists and an 84.6 effective field goal percentage, taking 13 shots in 25 minutes. Off the court, it was a sad and tragic day in Omaha, Nebraska (home to Creighton).

The Poison Cupcake (the night's biggest upset): Iowa, an 11.5 point underdog, beat Northern Iowa, 62-55 in Cedar Falls. That the Hawkeyes best win of the season occurred on the same date as Tony Freeman's return from injury is no coincidence; with Adam Haluska's graduation and Tyler Smith's transfer, Freeman was to be Iowa's most prolific returnee this season. To wit: Freeman was 3 for 3 from three point range, with 5 for 7 overall shooting (good for 15 points) in only 24 minutes last night.

Superman Wears Dominique Jones Pajamas (the night's top performer): South Florida's freshman guard put up some gaudy superficial numbers against Richmond, which is rare because a Spiders game usually includes too few possessions for that sort of thing. Last night, however, the game was played at a 67.8 possession pace, which was obviously the Bulls dictation. In any event, here are some of Jones' tempo-free numbers:

Dominique Jones 12/5 vs. Richmond
Effective Field Goal Percentage: 87.5
Points per Weighted Shot: 1.83
Defensive Rebounding Percentage: 31.6
Free Throw Rate: 75.0

This is the third update to the initial Hoops Nerd Ratings. You can find those pre-season ratings here.

Remember, the Hoops Nerd Ratings are expressed in + or - points per 67 possessions. Current season data (heavily regressed!) is given more weight as the season progresses. The Hoops Nerd Ratings are fully explained here.

1. Duke (Last Week: 3)
Hoops Nerd Rating: +23.1
Wins over Davidson (close) and Wisconsin (decidedly not close) delivered Duke to the top spot in this week's ratings. Their only game this week comes at home against a team that lost to Harvard last Saturday, so there is a high probability that the Blue Devils will maintain the pole position in these ratings for at least another week. If only ESPN would cease its blatantly anti-Duke agenda...

2. Kansas (1)
Rating: +22.4
Kansas' Rating improved since last week, but to a lesser extent that Duke's, so the Jayhawks fall to second place. I cannot possibly be the first person to write this, but what the hell: Rod(rick) Stewart is giving Kansas fans a Reason to Believe. Stewart leads the team with a 133.3 offensive rating and a 33.6 assist rate, per kenpom.com.

3. Tennessee (6)
Rating: +21.4
The Volunteers are moving the ball around this season (assists on 67.8% of their made field goals) and hitting their shots (55.3 effective field goal percentage), and playing at the high pace to which they have become accustomed in the Bruce Pearl era. Tennessee moves up this week on the basis of two blowouts, albeit against week competition.

4. North Carolina (4)
Rating: +21.4
Living up to the lofty standard set by Gardner-Webb earlier this season, the Tar Heels beat Kentucky on Saturday. For the North Carolina fan on your Christmas list, some Duke satire.

5. Michigan St. (2)
Rating: +21.4
The Spartans did nothing to deserve the three-spot drop in the Ratings, blowing out North Carolina St. and Jacksonville. Though it is somewhat obscured by the slow pace at which they play, Michigan St. has been totally dominant on the offensive glass, with an offensive rebound percentage of 45.8, second in the nation behind only Pitt.

6. Texas (16)
Rating: +19.4
Beating UCLA in Los Angeles is a pretty big deal. A lesson in context: Texas' offense is leading the nation in points per possession, but they are 17th in points per game.

7. UCLA (7)
Rating: +19.4
The Bruins lost The Big Game to Texas, but there is another one coming this week vs. a Davidson team that followed almost beating North Carolina with almost beating Duke. The best news of the week for UCLA was, of course, that Darren Collison played 26 minutes in a game against George Washington and made a full-blown 39-minute return from injury against Texas.

8. Georgetown (5)
Rating: +19.3
Well of course the Hoyas beat Old Dominion and Fairfield last week, and they should beat Alabama this week. The only top echelon opponent that Georgetown will face before 2008 is Memphis, on December 22nd. As expected, the Hoyas offense has been very good and very, very slow.

9. Wisconsin (8)
Rating: +19.0
A couple of hours from now, the Badgers will tip off in a game against Wofford, and no matter how big the blowout (Vegas says 28.5 points) it will not be enough to eliminate the memory of the terrible beating suffered at Cameron Indoor Stadium last week.

10. Marquette (15)
Rating: +19.0
The last good non-conference game of 2007 for Marquette (they've already played Duke and Oklahoma St.) is at Wisconsin this Saturday. After starting all 34 games last season, Ousmane Barro has come off the bench in every game so far this season; what's up with that?

Hoops Nerd Ratings Teams 11 - 30

11. Louisville (9), +18.9
12. Memphis (11), +18.7
13. West Virginia (21), +18.3
14. Clemson (12), +17.9
15. Kentucky (10), +17.9
16. Xavier (19), +17.5
17. Florida (16), +17.2
18. Arkansas (18), +17.0
19. Pittsburgh (17), +16.8
20. Texas A&M (14), +16.0
21. Indiana (26), +16.0
22. Butler (23), +15.2
23. Notre Dame (27), +15.0
24. Florida St. (25), +14.9
25. Washington St. (22), +14.8
26. George Mason (NR), +14.5
27. Southern Illinois (20), +14.4
28. Illinois (29), +14.4
29. BYU (NR), +14.1
30. Mississippi St. (28), +13.8

New this Week: George Mason, BYU
Disappearing this Week: Ohio St., Missouri
On the Cusp: Oregon, Ohio St., Missouri, Connecticut, Vanderbilt