Hoops Nerd

What are the Hoops Nerd Ratings? Read here.

Remember, the Hoops Nerd Ratings are expressed in expected +/- points per 67 possessions against average competition. There are some results here that go strongly against public opinion, and there is something to consider while doing a spit-take on your LCD: there is nothing subjective in these ratings, so whereas the analysis-model, described in the aforelinked post, is fair game for criticism, allegations of bias extrinsic to the model are unfounded.

These ratings will be updated on a weekly basis. There are almost as many sets of "power rankings" on the internet as there are teams in the Big East, but here at Hoops Nerd you will find a sort of peculiar objectivity that you won't find elsewhere.

Preseason Top 30

1. Kansas
Hoops Nerd Rating: +23.5
Preseason AP: 4
Kansas returns everybody but Julian Wright, but will have to deal with early season injuries to Brandon Rush (will return soon) and Sherron Collins (won’t return soon). They’ve beaten up on early November cannon-fodder UMKC and Louisiana Monroe. Kansas figures to dominate its own conference to a greater extent than any of its power conference cohorts.

2. Michigan State
Rating: +22.3
Preseason AP: 8
Every Spartan who logged significant minutes last season is back for what should be a successful run through an Oden-free Big Ten. I’m somewhat skeptical about the AP’s selection of Drew Neitzel as a preseason All-American and there is a disconnect: if Neitzel is the best point guard in the country (which the AP contends), then the Spartans – who return everybody and were a top 15 team a season ago – should surely be ranked higher than 8^th (preseason AP rank).

3. Georgetown
Rating: +22.3
Preseason AP: 5
Jeff Green is gone but Roy Hibbert remains for the Hoyas, which is better than the converse would be – Hibbert was the superior player last season besting Green in Effective Field Goal Percentage and Offensive and Defensive Rebounding Percentages. A December 22^nd showdown with Memphis is a gem on the national pre-conference play schedule.

4. North Carolina
Rating: +21.1
Preseason AP: 1
Losing Brandon Wright and Reyshawn Terry is going to hurt, but Tyler “Psycho T” Hansbrough is about to go bat-guano-insane on the ACC. The Tar Heels nearly lost to Davidson on a neutral court on Wednesday night, which is entirely defensible but may have some AP voters feeling apprehensive about their preseason darling.

5. Duke
Rating: +20.6
Preseason AP: 13
This is probably the first spit-take inducement among these rankings, but consider that (a) everybody except for Josh McRoberts returns to Cameron, (b) freshman Kyle Singler is one of the ACC’s (if not the country’s) top new-comers, and, most importantly, (c) Duke was much better than its record last season, recording 9.7 Pythagorean wins in-conference relative to only 8 actual conference victories.

6. UCLA
Rating: +20.1
Preseason AP: 2
Like the other teams near the top of the rankings, the Bruins bring back most of their key contributors from last season; in fact, only Arron Afflalo is missing. When guard Darren Collison returns from his injury, which should be sometime during November, UCLA will be at full-force.

7. Memphis
Rating: +19.7
Preseason AP: 3
There is no credible challenger to the Tigers within Conference USA, and that fact will undoubtedly lead to a gaudy (if not perfect) conference record. Memphis will earn its tournament seed this fall with a difficult non-conference schedule that includes Georgetown, Arizona, Gonzaga, Tennessee, and USC.

8. Louisville
Rating: +19.6
Preseason AP: 6
Virtually everybody returns for Rick Pitino this season – of its vast array of Big East brethren only Marquette and Connecticut have lost less talent. When Palacios gets healthy and if Caracter stays fit, Louisville should contend for a conference title.

9. Tennessee
Rating: +18.5
Preseason AP: 7
Tennessee’s place atop of the SEC is as much attributable to the fact that Noah, Horford, Brewer, Green, Humphrey and Richard have fled Gainesville as it is to the high incumbency rate at Rocky Top. Not only is everybody back (save for Dane Bradshaw), but Iowa transfer Tyler Smith (Big Ten All-Freshman team last season) was given compassionate clearance by the NCAA to suit-up for Tennessee immediately.

10. Texas A&M
Rating: +18.2
Preseason AP: 16
Yes, Acie Law is gone (so is Antanas Kavaliauskas), but left behind is a talented trio in Josh Carter, Joseph Jones and Dominique Kirk. Freshman seven-footer DeAndre Johnson is a burgeoning force in the Big Twelve. This was the seventh best team in the country last season, and it would be a mistake to myopically concentrate on the loss of Law to the neglect of the remaining talent – that is, the Aggies are still a very good team.

Preseason 11 - 30

11. Clemson
Rating: +18.1
Preseason AP: n/a

12. Wisconsin
Rating: +18.1
Preseason AP: n/a

13. Arkansas
Rating: +17.8
Preseason AP: 19

14. Kentucky
Rating: +17.5
Preseason AP: 20

15. Marquette
Rating: +17.4
Preseason AP: 11

16. Florida
Rating: +17.3
Preseason AP: n/a

17. Ohio St.
Rating: +16.6
Preaseason AP: n/a

18. Southern Illinois
Rating: +16.5
Preseason AP: 24

19. Texas
Rating: +15.4
Preseason AP: 15

20. North Carolina St.
Rating: +15.2
Preseason AP: 21

21. Pittsburgh
Rating: +15.0
Preseason AP: 22

22. Florida St.
Rating: +15.0
Preseason AP: n/a

23. Notre Dame
Rating: +15.0
Preseason AP: n/a

24. Mississippi St.
Rating: +14.9
Preseason AP: n/a

25. Oregon
Rating: +14.7
Preseason AP: 12

26. Xavier
Rating: +14.7
Preseason AP: n/a

27. Indiana
Rating: +14.6
Preseason AP: 9

28. Maryland
Rating: +14.4
Preseason AP: n/a

29. West Virginia
Rating: +14.4
Preseason AP: n/a

30. Illinois
Rating: +14.3
Preseason AP: n/a