Hoops Nerd

The Hoops Nerd Ratings are explained here. As of the approximate beginning of conference play in early January, the preseason projections are disregarded and current season data is the sole input. Offense and defense are, by this point in the season, regressed separately and then reunited to form the Hoops Nerd Ratings. The Hoops Nerd Ratings are expressed in plus or minus points per 67 possessions.

The basic premise is that the quality of offense and the quality of defense in any given Conference is relatively consistent from year to year. Based on a few season's worth of data (Ken Pomeroy's adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies, of course), we can form an expectation for the average quality of, for example, an ACC defense, or an Ivy League defense. We can also form expectations of the distribution of offensive or defensive prowess amongst the teams in a given Conference, again based on a few season's worth of data. The Hoops Nerd Ratings use z-scores to transpose current season data onto our expectation model, taking into account both average and distribution, for both offensive and defensive efficiencies for each team. The value in this approach rests largely with its ability to rein in aberrant results on either side of the ball, recognize the legit outliers, and use of historical context as the base to which regression will ultimately pull.

1. Kansas (Jan 15 Rank: 3)
Hoops Nerd Rating: +24.9
The Jayhawks regain their spot atop the Hoops Nerd Ratings, having last been number one on November 26th (it's been Duke ever since). Since the last installment of these ratings, Kansas notched a six-point win at Missouri and home-court blowouts over Iowa St. and Nebraska. This evening's trip to Manhattan to play the resurgent K-State Flying Beasleys will be an entertaining challenge.

2. Duke (1)
+23.8
Duke actually has a higher Hoops Nerd Rating this week, and so the single-spot drop in the ratings is a bit of an illusion, attributable to Kansas' dominance more than any fault of Duke's. After all, the Blue Devils have scored four consecutive (and convincing) ACC wins, three of which were on the road, over the past two weeks. The Inconvenient ACC Truth is that Duke has been the best team in its conference this season, further evidence of which will likely be provided on Thursday when the Blue Devils take on both NC State and climate change.

3. North Carolina (2)
+21.2
With two wins and a loss (to Maryland) over the past two weeks, the Tar Heels have dropped to third in the Hoops Nerd Ratings. North Carolina currently boasts the best offense in the nation, owing particularly to their tremendous offensive rebounding, which is second in the nation only to Holy Cross (raw numbers, of course).

4. Tennessee (5)
+20.6
The Vols constitute a pretty good demonstration of the Hoops Nerd Rating's transposition of efficiencies into historical context. They are currently significantly ahead of the SEC averages on both offense and defense, and our model expects that, when a team is this dominant relative to others in the SEC, then that team is likely very, very good.

5. Georgetown (9)
+19.9
The Hoyas experienced a significant jump in these ratings, attributable to their having beaten three reasonably good Big East teams over the last two weeks (Notre Dame, Syracuse and West Virginia). Georgetown leads the nation in 2-point field goal percentage.

6. West Virginia (7)
+19.3
Since the last installment of the Hoops Nerd Ratings, the Mountaineers have beaten-up on inferior competition (St. John's, South Florida, Marshall) and lost to Georgetown. Tonight is a big one for Bob Huggins, as his former team - Cincinnati - is coming to Morgantown. It's a sort of inverted deja vu for Huggins, as he still remembers the 1998 NCAA tournament game in which his (then) Bearcats lost to his alma-mater West Virginia, 75-74.

7. Wisconsin (6)
+18.9
The Badgers are 6 - 1 in conference play, but have yet to battle some of the better Big Ten teams: Minnesota, Indiana, Michigan St. or Ohio St. That will change tomorrow night when Wisconsin hosts the Hoosiers. Ken Pomeroy knows that Wisconsin is the best team in the Big Ten, and so should you.

8. Michigan St. (12)
+18.8
The Spartans have beaten Big Ten rivals Michigan, Northwestern and Minnesota since we last spoke and have moved up four spots in the Hoops Nerd Ratings. Izzo's crew hopes to make history tonight against Illinois.

9. Marquette (4)
+18.6
Consecutive losses at Louisville and Connecticut have caused Marquette to drop five spots in this week's Hoops Nerd Ratings. Joe Sheehan has Marquette on probation until they get a conference win on the road, which the Golden Eagles have a shot at Saturday in Cincinnati.

10. Indiana (11)
+18.5
Losing at home to a Dyson-less Connecticut team is not cool, but the Huskies are a decent bet to improve (in one or more of reality and perception). Kelvin Sampson wrote this letter imploring fans to be civil at Assembly Hall, no word yet on whether Sampson plans to text the letter to potential recruits...

Hoops Nerd Ratings Teams 11 - 30

11. Drake (8), +18.4
12. Xavier (15), +17.7
13. Clemson (13), +17.5
14. Florida (18), +17.2
15. Memphis (17), +17.2
16. UCLA (16), +17.0
17. Notre Dame (19), +16.0
18. Louisville (24), +15.8
19. Connecticut (25), +15.5
20. Mississippi (16), +15.5
21. Kansas St. (NR), +15.5
22. Pittsburgh (20), +15.3
23. Mississippi St. (22), +15.3
24. Ohio St. (26), +15.2
25. Washington St. (21), +14.9
26. New Mexico (29), +14.1
27. Texas (28), +14.1
28. Arizona (NR), +13.9
29. Butler (NR), +13.7
30. Virginia Commonwealth (NR), +13.4

New this Week: Kansas St., Arizona, Butler, Virginia Commonwealth
Disappearing this Week: Texas A&M, Utah, Arkansas, Missouri
On the Cusp: Gonzaga, Kentucky, Stanford, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt