Hoops Nerd

The Hoops Nerd Ratings are explained here. As of the approximate beginning of conference play in early January, the preseason projections are disregarded and current season data is the sole input. Offense and defense are, by this point in the season, regressed separately and then reunited to form the Hoops Nerd Ratings. The Hoops Nerd Ratings are expressed in plus or minus points per 67 possessions.

1. Duke (Last Week: 1)
Hoops Nerd Rating: +23.4
Beating Cornell by 14 points was enough to keep the Blue Devils at the top of the ratings, although their margin over the second place team has shrunk from 5.0 points last week to 0.7 currently. Duke hadn't played in 17 days, so the natural response to the narrow (relative to expectations) win over the Big Red is to attribute it to "rust". "Rust" is a little subjective for the Hoops Nerd, but it beats labeling it random simply because it can't be diagnosed and quantified, so yeah: Duke was rusty.

2. North Carolina (3)
+22.7
The overtime win at Clemson was the closest thing that North Carolina has had to a loss yet this season. The Tar Heels are number one in the media polls, but are getting considerably less love from more objective rating systems.

3. Kansas (4)
+21.6
The Jayhawks perpetrated a 25 point embarrassment of Boston College on Saturday in their penultimate game before the beginning of conference play. Kansas' offense ranks second in the nation (to Georgetown) in effective field goal percentage, and its defense ranks second in steal percentage (to VMI) - a formidable combination, to be sure.

4. Tennessee (6)
+20.9
The Volunteers were able to rise two spots in the Hoops Nerd Ratings without actually having played a game since last weeks rankings, owing to losses by West Virginia and Marquette. Of the six players who have played at least 49% of Tennessee's minutes this season, Chris Lofton has the lowest effective field goal percentage. The Vols have played a very strong non-conference schedule, due partially to the fact that they stepped up on short notice and took Georgetown's spot in a game in Seattle vs. Gonzaga.

5. Marquette (2)
+20.9
West Virginia is to blame for Marquette's three-spot tumble down the Hoops Nerd Ratings, having beaten the Golden Eagles by 15 points on Sunday. There is an interesting three-team race shaping up in these early moments of Big East play. Myself and Jeff Sagarin have Marquette atop the conference, Ken Pomeroy has West Virginia as number one, and the national media and Big East bloggers both prefer Georgetown.

6. Michigan St. (7)
+20.3
The narrow margin (six points) of the home win over Minnesota might have the Spartans seeing Golden Gophers in their dreams/nightmares in anticipation of what could be their next big test, a January 20 trip to Minnesota. Not that that is all bad: according to some, the appearance of a gopher in one's dream may be a pun on "go for it" and thus an indicator of subconscious initiative and drive to achieve one's goals.

7. West Virginia (5)
+20.1
Losing to Notre Dame on Thursday hurt, but the pain was quickly ameliorated by a Sunday win over Marquette. New Mountaineers coach Bob Huggins apparently called on Southern Cal's Tim Floyd for some defensive advice, a call which yielded the triangle-and-2 that ultimately confounded the Golden Eagles.

8. Clemson (14)
+19.0
A win over Alabama and (more significantly) a two-point overtime loss the North Carolina have vaulted the Tigers up six spots in these ratings. Clemson's collapse last season is nearing Platonic form status as the collapse against which all others are measured - the cautionary tales in media and casual conversation about the soft undefeated teams (like Vanderbilt this season, some might say) never fail to invoke last year's Tigers. Does the ubiquity of their failure bother them as much as the incessant invocation of or allusion to same bothers me?

9. Wisconsin (8)
+19.0
Opening the Big Ten schedule with wins over Michigan and Iowa is a nice, soft introduction to what could be a very arduous season. Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan St., Minnesota and Ohio St. (and maybe even Penn St.) are all serious contenders for the Big Ten crown, making each teams' conference schedule a virtual minefield of potential losses - luckily for Wisconsin, however, the team does not have to travel to Michigan St. this season. The Badgers have the best defense in the country, according to kenpom.com.

10. Georgetown (10)
+18.9
Since the last installment of these ratings, the Hoyas have played only one game, beating Rutgers (yawn). Not surprisingly, Georgetown's offense is really slow and really efficient. The Hoyas lead the country in two-point field goal percentage, a leading indicator of tournament success.

Hoops Nerd Ratings Teams 11 - 30

11. Xavier (15), +18.6
12. Indiana (9), +18.5
13. Mississippi (11), +18.3
14. Drake (16), +18.1
15. Texas A&M (17), +18.0
16. UCLA (24), +16.8
17. Notre Dame (12), +16.7
18. Florida (20), +15.8
19. Memphis (22), +15.6
20. Texas (21), +15.4
21. Arkansas (19), +15.3
22. Pittsburgh (18), +15.1
23. New Mexico (13), +14.7
24. Syracuse (25), +14.7
25. Butler (NR), +13.9
26. Mississippi St. (NR), +13.9
27. Gonzaga (29), +13.9
28. Washington St. (NR), +13.7
29. Minnesota (28), +13.5
30. Oklahoma (30), +13.3

New this Week: Butler, Mississippi St., Washington St.
Disappearing this Week: Arizona, South Carolina, Florida St.
On the Cusp: Louisville, Ohio St., Arizona, Vanderbilt, Florida St.