Hoops Nerd

Extended Holiday Break ending in 3...2...1...

This is the season's first set of Hoops Nerd Ratings that completely disregard preseason projections - the weight assigned to the current season is now 100%. The preseason projections did not separate offense from defense, but instead was built by one single +/- points per 67 possessions number. Now, free from the shackles of those crude projections, offense and defense are treated as the insular categories that they are.

The Hoops Nerd Ratings are explained here. Since the preseason projections are now disregarded, and offense and defense are calculated separately, the regression model in the aforelinked explanation reigns in two different types (offense and defense) of aberrant performances. The Hoops Nerd Ratings are expressed in plus or minutes points per 67 possessions.

1. Duke (Last Ratings [12/10]: 1)
Hoops Nerd Rating: +25.8
Best Fall 2007 Win: Marquette
Worst Fall 2007 Loss: Pittsburgh
Fall 2007 MVP: Jon Scheyer

2. Marquette (8)
HNR: +20.8
Best Win: Wisconsin
Worst Loss: Duke
MVP: Lazar Hayward

3. North Carolina (4)
HNR: +20.7
Best Win: Ohio St.
Worst Loss: n/a
MVP: Tyler Hansbrough

4. Kansas (2)
HNR: +20.4
Best Win: Arizona
Worst Loss: n/a
MVP: Mario Chalmers

5. West Virginia (6)
HNR: +20.0
Best Win: New Mexico St.
Worst Loss: Oklahoma
MVP: Alex Ruoff

6. Tennessee (3)
HNR: +20.0
Best Win: West Virginia
Worst Loss: Texas
MVP: Tyler Smith

7. Michigan St. (5)
HNR: +19.5
Best Win: Texas
Worst Loss: UCLA
MVP: Drew Neitzel

8. Wisconsin (7)
HNR: +18.8
Best Win: Texas
Worst Loss: Marquette
MVP: Joe Krabbenhoft

9. Indiana (20)
HNR: +18.7
Best Win: Illinois St.
Worst Loss: Xavier
MVP: D.J. White

10. Georgetown (12)
HNR: +17.9
Best Win: Alabama
Worst Loss: Memphis
MVP: Roy Hibbert

Hoops Nerd Ratings Teams 11 - 30

11. Mississippi (24), +17.9
12. Notre Dame (22), +17.8
13. New Mexico (NR), +17.3
14. Clemson (15), +17.0
15. Xavier (13), +17.0
16. Drake (NR), +16.7
17. Texas A&M (19), +16.5
18. Pittsburgh (17), +15.4
19. Arkansas (11), +15.2
20. Florida (18), +14.9
21. Texas (10), +14.8
22. Memphis (16), +14.7
23. Arizona (NR), +14.6
24. UCLA (9), +14.5
25. Syracuse (NR), +14.4
26. South Carolina (NR), +14.3
27. Florida St. (21), +14.1
28. Minnesota (NR), +14.0
29. Gonzaga (NR), +13.9
30. Oklahoma (NR), +13.9

New this Week: New Mexico, Drake, Arizona, Syracuse, South Carolina, Minnesota, Gonzaga, Oklahoma.
Disappearing this Week: Louisville, Butler, Kentucky, Creighton, Illinois, Washington St., George Mason, BYU.
On the Cusp: Mississippi St., Creighton, Washington St., Connecticut, Butler.