Hoops Nerd

These are not, by any means, at attempt to predict who will be selected this afternoon. Nor is this an account of who "deserves" to get in, but here are the best 34 teams without automatic bids per the Hoops Nerd Ratings (updated through Saturday, March 15th - the last version of the rankings published is here, check it out if for nothing other than the explanation). This assumes that North Carolina, Arkansas, Kansas and Wisconsin grab the remaining automatic bids later today.

Remember: these are decidedly not predictions.

1. Duke
Hoops Nerd Rating: +22.2
RPI (courtesy Ken Pomeroy): 6
Lunardi says: in
Bracketology 101 says: in
Likelihood of Bid: lock

2. Tennessee
HNR: +22.2
RPI: 1
Lunardi: in
B101: in
LoB: lock

3. Georgetown
HNR: +20.1
RPI: 8
Lunardi: in
B101: in
LoB: lock

4. Clemson
HNR: +18.7
RPI: 19
Lunardi: in
B101: in
LoB: lock

5. Michigan St.
HNR: +18.1
RPI: 16
Lunardi: in
B101: out
LoB: lock

6. Louisville
HNR: +18.0
RPI: 13
Lunardi: in
B101: in
LoB: lock

7. Marquette
HNR: +17.4
RPI: 20
Lunardi: in
B101: in
LoB: lock

8. Indiana
HNR: +17.2
RPI: 23
Lunardi: in
B101: in
LoB: lock

9. Connecticut
HNR: +16.8
RPI: 18
Lunardi: in
B101: in
LoB: lock

10. Notre Dame
HNR: +16.5
RPI: 27
Lunardi: in
B101: in
LoB: lock

11. Xavier
HNR: +16.5
RPI: 9
Lunardi: in
B101: in
LoB: lock

12. West Virginia
HNR: +16.2
RPI: 28
Lunardi: in
B101: in
LoB: lock

13. Texas
HNR: +16.1
RPI: 5
Lunardi: in
B101: in
LoB: lock

14. Florida
HNR: +16.0
RPI: 72
Lunardi: out
B101: out
LoB: nil

15. New Mexico
HNR: +15.1
RPI: 60
Lunardi: out
B101: out
LoB: inkling of hope

16. Purdue
HNR: +15.0
RPI: 44
Lunardi: in
B101: in
LoB: lock

17. Vanderbilt
HNR: +15.0
RPI: 12
Lunardi: in
B101: in
LoB: lock

18. Kansas St.
HNR: +14.6
RPI: 50
Lunardi: in
B101: in
LoB: lock

19. Washington St.
HNR: +14.3
RPI: 21
Lunardi: in
B101: in
LoB: lock

20. Texas A&M
HNR: +14.2
RPI: 41
Lunardi: in
B101: in
LoB: lock

21. Stanford
HNR: +14.0
RPI: 14
Lunardi: in
B101: in
LoB: lock

22. Mississippi
HNR: +14.0
RPI: 46
Lunardi: out
B101: out
LoB: inkling of hope

23. Mississippi St.
HNR: +13.9
RPI: 40
Lunardi: in
B101: in
LoB: lock

24. Ohio St.
HNR: +13.7
RPI: 49
Lunardi: in
B101: out
LoB: virtual coin-flip

25. Gonzaga
HNR: +13.6
RPI: 31
Lunardi: in
B101: in
LoB: lock

26. Syracuse
HNR: +13.0
RPI: 55
Lunardi: out
B101: out
LoB: nearly nil

27. Miami FL
HNR: +12.9
RPI: 34
Lunardi: in
B101: in
LoB: lock

28. Virginia Commonwealth
HNR: +12.9
RPI: 54
Lunardi: out
B101: out
LoB: inkling of hope

29. Arizona
HNR: +12.9
RPI: 38
Lunardi: in
B101: in
LoB: inkling of hope

30. Georgia Tech
HNR: +12.6
RPI: 67
Lunardi: out
B101: out
LoB: nil

31. Virginia Tech
HNR: +12.6
RPI: 53
Lunardi: out
B101: out
LoB: inkling of hope

32. Illinois
HNR: +12.1
RPI: 103
Lunardi: out
B101: out
LoB: nil (albeit still with a shot at an automatic bid)

33. USC
HNR: +11.8
RPI: 30
Lunardi: in
B101: in
LoB: lock

34. Brigham Young
HNR: +11.7
RPI: 25
Lunardi: in
B101: in
LoB: lock

And, because it's the cool thing to do:

Next Four Out
Florida St.
Kentucky
Southern Illinois
New Mexico St.

Last Four Out
Illinois St.
Maryland
Alabama
Villanova

The Hoops Nerd's day job has been effing with the blogging schedule. Not cool - but here are the all-new late February Hoops Nerd Ratings.

The Hoops Nerd Ratings are explained here. As of the approximate beginning of conference play in early January, the preseason projections are disregarded and current season data is the sole input. Offense and defense are, by this point in the season, regressed separately and then reunited to form the Hoops Nerd Ratings. The Hoops Nerd Ratings are expressed in plus or minus points per 67 possessions.

The basic premise is that the quality of offense and the quality of defense in any given Conference is relatively consistent from year to year. Based on a few season's worth of data (Ken Pomeroy's adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies, of course), we can form an expectation for the average quality of, for example, an ACC defense, or an Ivy League defense. We can also form expectations of the distribution of offensive or defensive prowess amongst the teams in a given Conference, again based on a few season's worth of data. The Hoops Nerd Ratings use z-scores to transpose current season data onto our expectation model, taking into account both average and distribution, for both offensive and defensive efficiencies for each team. The value in this approach rests largely with its ability to rein in aberrant results on either side of the ball, recognize the legit outliers, and use of historical context as the base to which regression will ultimately pull.

1. Kansas (Jan 30 Rank: 1)
Hoops Nerd Rating: +24.3
Rock! Chalk! Grossly Underappreciated by the National Media Jayhawk! Both Ken Pomeroy's ratings and Jeff Sagarin's Predictor ratings say that they are the best team in the nation, and your humble Hoops Nerd concurs, yet the AP and ESPN/USA Today have Kansas slotted 6th and 7th, respectively. The difference really is in the objectives of the different types of systems: systems like Pomeroy and Predictor are designed to quantify performance, whereas the media rankings are more an attempt to attribute varying degrees of merit and deservedness to each team, often based on teams' records (regardless of margin of victory) and an illusory/fictional transitive thingy ("Stephen F. Austin beat Oklahoma, and Nicholls St. beat Stephen F. Austin, then Nicholls St. is better than Oklahoma!"). That is, the former tells which team is best, whereas the latter tells you which team deserves to be ranked first.

2. Duke (2)
+23.5
Like that of Kansas, Duke's national AP ranking (7th) belies its true quality. Recent consecutive road losses to Wake Forest and Miami (FL) may be what sinks the Blue Devils' shot at a #1 seed in THE tournament: Lunardi currently has Duke projected as the last #2 seed (i.e. 8th overall) and Bracketology 101 has them as the third #2 seed. The team will have opportunities to play its way back into a #1 seed, with a showdown vs. North Carolina on March 8th and of course the ACC Tournament.

3. Tennessee (4)
+22.7
The Vols have dominated the SEC for most of this season, and as such have been looked upon kindly by the Hoops Nerd Ratings. As can be read in the detailed description above, the Hoops Nerd Ratings transpose current play relative to conference onto an expectation model based on historical results - exactly the kind of approach that would have believed in the Vols all along. Since November 26th, each installment of the Hoops Nerd Ratings has ranked the Vols higher than the corresponding week's AP Poll did. On 11/26, these ratings had Tennessee ranked 6th, the AP had them 11th, on 12/3 it was 3rd here and 10th in the AP, on 12/10 it was 3rd here and 12th in the AP, on 12/31 it was 6th here and 8th in the AP, on 1/8 it was 4th here and 8th in the AP, on 1/15 it was 5th here and 6th in the AP, and on 1/30 it was 4th here and 7th in the AP. That trend finally reversed this week, as the AP went APeshit and vaulted the Vols to 1st. The Hoops Nerd Ratings are still happy to take full credit for having been (heretofore) on the vanguard of this particular Orange Revolution, however.

4. North Carolina (3)
+22.5
Ty Lawson may return in time for Saturday's game vs. Boston College, but one would assume that Roy Williams would have to be assured that the timetable for Lawson's return would have to be conservative enough so as not to risk further injury. The Tar Heels are a virtual lock for a very high tournament seed, and any further regular season success at this point is subject to diminishing returns.

5. Wisconsin (7)
+20.5
With a reasonable expectation of winning at least two of their final three regular season games (vs. Michigan St., vs. Penn St., at Northwestern), the Badgers could potentially secure a #2 seed in the Tournament. The thought in Madison is that this year's iteration could be superior to last season's more heralded and nationally-ranked Badger team - and those thinkers are correct.

6. Indiana (10)
+19.1
There is nothing that I can say here about the recent goings-on in Bloomington that couldn't be read in much more detail elsewhere, so I will simply quote the following passage that appeared in the Hoops Nerd Ratings column on January 30th of this year, before the recent scandal broke: "Kelvin Sampson wrote this letter imploring fans to be civil at Assembly Hall, no word yet on whether Sampson plans to text the letter to potential recruits..." The Hoops Nerd is nothing if not prescient.

7. Marquette (9)
+19.0
The Golden Eagles propensity to lay thuderous beatdowns on quality opponents and then inexplicably lose a game or two tends to confound power rankings and rating systems, subjective and objective alike. Witness Basketball Prospectus power ratings man Joe Sheehan: Sheehan's rankings column (called "The List", of which I am a big fan) attempts to rank teams using a somewhat subjective wins/losses/eyeball test system, but with empirical underpinnings. Sheehan most recently ranked Marquette 22nd, a ranking that belied his "numbers only" ranking of Marquette as 12th. For a man (like Sheehan) trying to balance the input of his eyes with the input of his Excel sheet, Marquette presents a significant challenge. Luckily for me, it's all Excel sheet here on the Hoops Nerd Ratings.

8. Georgetown (5)
+18.9
February losses to Syracuse and Louisville have put a crimp in the #1 seed plans of the Hoyas, but of course with Marquette, Louisville and the Big East Tournament on the horizon, then could regain their once-lofty ranking.

9. Clemson (13)
+18.5
The Tigers haven't played in a week (having last seen game action February 19 vs. Florida St.). Clemson will need to finish strong against four teams from the upper-middle-tier of the ACC (Miami, Maryland, Georgia Tech, and Virginia Tech) in order to lock down an at-large bid to the Tournament. Two more wins ought to put them into the coveted Glockner Lock Status.

10. UCLA (16)
+18.5
The Bruins appear headed for at least a #2 seed and possibly a #1. The Hoops Nerd is looking forward to the March 8th game vs. Stanford (the same day as Duke vs. North Carolina).

Hoops Nerd Ratings Teams 11 - 30

11. Louisville (18), +18.3
12. Xavier (12), +18.1
13. Michigan St. (8), +17.7
14. Notre Dame (17), +16.9
15. Kansas St. (21), +16.8
16. West Virginia (6), +16.7
17. Texas (27), +16.6
18. Florida (14), +16.3
19. Memphis (15), +16.1
20. New Mexico (26), +15.5
21. Connecticut (19), +15.4
22. Pittsburgh (22), +15.4
23. Drake (11), +15.0
24. Arkansas (NR), +14.8
25. Vanderbilt (NR), +14.7
26. Washington St. (25), +14.7
27. Purdue (NR), +14.6
28. Butler (29), +13.9
29. Mississippi St. (23), +13.7
30. Stanford (NR), +13.7

New this Week: Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Purdue, Stanford
Disappearing this Week: Mississippi, Ohio St., Arizona, Virginia Commonwealth
On the Cusp: Miami (FL), Texas A&M, Ohio St., Gonzaga, Arizona

The Hoops Nerd Ratings are explained here. As of the approximate beginning of conference play in early January, the preseason projections are disregarded and current season data is the sole input. Offense and defense are, by this point in the season, regressed separately and then reunited to form the Hoops Nerd Ratings. The Hoops Nerd Ratings are expressed in plus or minus points per 67 possessions.

The basic premise is that the quality of offense and the quality of defense in any given Conference is relatively consistent from year to year. Based on a few season's worth of data (Ken Pomeroy's adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies, of course), we can form an expectation for the average quality of, for example, an ACC defense, or an Ivy League defense. We can also form expectations of the distribution of offensive or defensive prowess amongst the teams in a given Conference, again based on a few season's worth of data. The Hoops Nerd Ratings use z-scores to transpose current season data onto our expectation model, taking into account both average and distribution, for both offensive and defensive efficiencies for each team. The value in this approach rests largely with its ability to rein in aberrant results on either side of the ball, recognize the legit outliers, and use of historical context as the base to which regression will ultimately pull.

1. Kansas (Jan 15 Rank: 3)
Hoops Nerd Rating: +24.9
The Jayhawks regain their spot atop the Hoops Nerd Ratings, having last been number one on November 26th (it's been Duke ever since). Since the last installment of these ratings, Kansas notched a six-point win at Missouri and home-court blowouts over Iowa St. and Nebraska. This evening's trip to Manhattan to play the resurgent K-State Flying Beasleys will be an entertaining challenge.

2. Duke (1)
+23.8
Duke actually has a higher Hoops Nerd Rating this week, and so the single-spot drop in the ratings is a bit of an illusion, attributable to Kansas' dominance more than any fault of Duke's. After all, the Blue Devils have scored four consecutive (and convincing) ACC wins, three of which were on the road, over the past two weeks. The Inconvenient ACC Truth is that Duke has been the best team in its conference this season, further evidence of which will likely be provided on Thursday when the Blue Devils take on both NC State and climate change.

3. North Carolina (2)
+21.2
With two wins and a loss (to Maryland) over the past two weeks, the Tar Heels have dropped to third in the Hoops Nerd Ratings. North Carolina currently boasts the best offense in the nation, owing particularly to their tremendous offensive rebounding, which is second in the nation only to Holy Cross (raw numbers, of course).

4. Tennessee (5)
+20.6
The Vols constitute a pretty good demonstration of the Hoops Nerd Rating's transposition of efficiencies into historical context. They are currently significantly ahead of the SEC averages on both offense and defense, and our model expects that, when a team is this dominant relative to others in the SEC, then that team is likely very, very good.

5. Georgetown (9)
+19.9
The Hoyas experienced a significant jump in these ratings, attributable to their having beaten three reasonably good Big East teams over the last two weeks (Notre Dame, Syracuse and West Virginia). Georgetown leads the nation in 2-point field goal percentage.

6. West Virginia (7)
+19.3
Since the last installment of the Hoops Nerd Ratings, the Mountaineers have beaten-up on inferior competition (St. John's, South Florida, Marshall) and lost to Georgetown. Tonight is a big one for Bob Huggins, as his former team - Cincinnati - is coming to Morgantown. It's a sort of inverted deja vu for Huggins, as he still remembers the 1998 NCAA tournament game in which his (then) Bearcats lost to his alma-mater West Virginia, 75-74.

7. Wisconsin (6)
+18.9
The Badgers are 6 - 1 in conference play, but have yet to battle some of the better Big Ten teams: Minnesota, Indiana, Michigan St. or Ohio St. That will change tomorrow night when Wisconsin hosts the Hoosiers. Ken Pomeroy knows that Wisconsin is the best team in the Big Ten, and so should you.

8. Michigan St. (12)
+18.8
The Spartans have beaten Big Ten rivals Michigan, Northwestern and Minnesota since we last spoke and have moved up four spots in the Hoops Nerd Ratings. Izzo's crew hopes to make history tonight against Illinois.

9. Marquette (4)
+18.6
Consecutive losses at Louisville and Connecticut have caused Marquette to drop five spots in this week's Hoops Nerd Ratings. Joe Sheehan has Marquette on probation until they get a conference win on the road, which the Golden Eagles have a shot at Saturday in Cincinnati.

10. Indiana (11)
+18.5
Losing at home to a Dyson-less Connecticut team is not cool, but the Huskies are a decent bet to improve (in one or more of reality and perception). Kelvin Sampson wrote this letter imploring fans to be civil at Assembly Hall, no word yet on whether Sampson plans to text the letter to potential recruits...

Hoops Nerd Ratings Teams 11 - 30

11. Drake (8), +18.4
12. Xavier (15), +17.7
13. Clemson (13), +17.5
14. Florida (18), +17.2
15. Memphis (17), +17.2
16. UCLA (16), +17.0
17. Notre Dame (19), +16.0
18. Louisville (24), +15.8
19. Connecticut (25), +15.5
20. Mississippi (16), +15.5
21. Kansas St. (NR), +15.5
22. Pittsburgh (20), +15.3
23. Mississippi St. (22), +15.3
24. Ohio St. (26), +15.2
25. Washington St. (21), +14.9
26. New Mexico (29), +14.1
27. Texas (28), +14.1
28. Arizona (NR), +13.9
29. Butler (NR), +13.7
30. Virginia Commonwealth (NR), +13.4

New this Week: Kansas St., Arizona, Butler, Virginia Commonwealth
Disappearing this Week: Texas A&M, Utah, Arkansas, Missouri
On the Cusp: Gonzaga, Kentucky, Stanford, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt

The Hoops Nerd Ratings are explained here. As of the approximate beginning of conference play in early January, the preseason projections are disregarded and current season data is the sole input. Offense and defense are, by this point in the season, regressed separately and then reunited to form the Hoops Nerd Ratings. The Hoops Nerd Ratings are expressed in plus or minus points per 67 possessions.

1. Duke (Last Week: 1)
Hoops Nerd Rating: +23.3
The Blue Devils hold onto the top spot for yet another week, having beaten Temple (comfortably) and Virginia (handily). Between Coach Krzyzewski moving into sixth spot on the all-time coaching wins list and the apparent return of the Duke's head cheerleader, things are going very well in Durham.

2. North Carolina (2)
+22.4
North Carolina played two in-state opponents last week and had more difficulty with the one from the Big South (NC Asheville) than with the one from the ACC (NC State). According to Ken Pomeroy's numbers, the Tar Heels have four of the nation's top 33 offensive performers (minimum 20% of team's possessions used): Wayne Ellington (ranked number 5), Tyler Hansbrough (8), Danny Green (15), and Ty Lawson (33).

3. Kansas (3)
+22.0
The Jayhawks beat Loyola Maryland, Oklahoma and Nebraska last week, each without inordinate difficulty. Kansas dominates the Big Twelve in a way that few other teams have dominated their respective conferences this season; the 4.6 gap in Hoops Nerd Rating between Kansas and the Big Twelve's second highest (Texas A&M) is very high relative to most, but is notably surpassed by Xavier (8.2 over Duquesne), Memphis (9.4 over UAB), Butler (8.1 over Valparaiso), and Drake (7.5 over Creighton).

4. Marquette (5)
+21.1
Beating Seton Hall and throttling Notre Dame comprise just the sort of week needed for a Big East team to move up a spot in the Hoops Nerd Ratings. I have Marquette ranked fourth, Pomeroy has them third, Sagarin has them sixth in his "predictor" ratings, but both the AP and ESPN/USA Today have them thirteenth. What gives? Two of those five rating systems take a myopic view of win-loss records and routinely neglect context, can you guess which two?

5. Tennessee (4)
+20.9
The Volunteers were leap-frogged by Marquette through no fault of their own, a fact to which this week's victims Ole Miss and South Carolina would undoubtedly attest. Is the New Tyler Smith a product of context (Iowa last season, Tennessee this) or should his absurd degree of improvement be attributed internally? Last season, he had an Offensive Rating of 100, this season he is at 130. Some context: only one current player on the Vols roster has an offensive rating under 100, conversely, Smith's 130 rating is 17th nationally this season. When considering whether this improvement is situational or not, remember that Offensive Rating is a tempo-free stat, so account has already been taken of the fact that the Hawkeyes are a much slower team.

6. Wisconsin (9)
+20.2
The Badgers were able to advance in the Hoops Nerd Ratings by doing what only Duke, Maryland, Arizona, Miami (OH), Tennessee St., Ohio St., Penn St., and Indiana have done this season: beat the Illini. Coach Ryan gets a little passive-aggressive with the refs here, simultaneously attributing some of Michael Flowers' recent struggles to unwhistled moving screens and insisting that he's not complaining about the non-calls.

7. West Virginia (7)
+19.4
West Virginia split games with Syracuse and Louisville last week. Backup Quarterback Jarrett Brown has joined the team, though maybe he shouldn't play the Pitt game...

8. Drake (14)
+19.0
Hoops Nerd Ratings top-ten-virgins Drake moved into this lofty position by virtue of wins over Missouri St. and Indiana St.. As I am nearly certain that Kyle Whelliston will point out within the next few hours (when the Week 9 State of the Mid-Majors will likely be revealed), Drake is the top Mid Major team in the country. The Bulldog triumvirate of non-power conference teams (Gonzaga, Butler, Drake) is now firmly established.

9. Georgetown (10)
+18.9
The Hoops Nerd's Excel sheet updates every Monday morning, so for now we will ignore last night's loss to Pitt. With that in mind, it was wins over DePaul and Connecticut which allowed Georgetown to advance in this week's ratings. The Hoyas play their best under a full moon.

10. UCLA (16)
+18.7
UCLA (along with Drake) was the biggest mover into this week's top ten, advancing six spots on the strength of wins over both PAC Ten teams from Washington. These guys loved the Washington St. game, described in the aforelinked article as the best offensive one of Kevin Love's young career.

Hoops Nerd Ratings Teams 11 - 30

11. Indiana (12), +18.5
12. Michigan St. (6), +18.0
13. Clemson (8), +17.9
14. Texas A&M (15), +17.4
15. Xavier (11), +17.3
16. Mississippi (13), +17.1
17. Memphis (19), +16.2
18. Florida (18), +15.8
19. Notre Dame (17), +15.6
20. Pittsburgh (22), +15.5
21. Washington St. (28), +15.1
22. Mississippi St. (26), +14.6
23. Utah (NR), +14.5
24. Louisville (NR), +14.3
25. Connecticut (NR), +14.3
26. Ohio St. (NR), +14.2
27. Arkansas (21), +14.2
28. Texas (20), +14.1
29. New Mexico (23), +14.0
30. Missouri (NR), +13.6

New this Week: Utah, Louisville, Connecticut, Ohio St., Missouri
Disappearing this Week: Syracuse, Butler, Gonzaga, Minnesota, Oklahoma
On the Cusp: Kansas St., Gonzaga, Butler, Oklahoma, Minnesota

The Hoops Nerd Ratings are explained here. As of the approximate beginning of conference play in early January, the preseason projections are disregarded and current season data is the sole input. Offense and defense are, by this point in the season, regressed separately and then reunited to form the Hoops Nerd Ratings. The Hoops Nerd Ratings are expressed in plus or minus points per 67 possessions.

1. Duke (Last Week: 1)
Hoops Nerd Rating: +23.4
Beating Cornell by 14 points was enough to keep the Blue Devils at the top of the ratings, although their margin over the second place team has shrunk from 5.0 points last week to 0.7 currently. Duke hadn't played in 17 days, so the natural response to the narrow (relative to expectations) win over the Big Red is to attribute it to "rust". "Rust" is a little subjective for the Hoops Nerd, but it beats labeling it random simply because it can't be diagnosed and quantified, so yeah: Duke was rusty.

2. North Carolina (3)
+22.7
The overtime win at Clemson was the closest thing that North Carolina has had to a loss yet this season. The Tar Heels are number one in the media polls, but are getting considerably less love from more objective rating systems.

3. Kansas (4)
+21.6
The Jayhawks perpetrated a 25 point embarrassment of Boston College on Saturday in their penultimate game before the beginning of conference play. Kansas' offense ranks second in the nation (to Georgetown) in effective field goal percentage, and its defense ranks second in steal percentage (to VMI) - a formidable combination, to be sure.

4. Tennessee (6)
+20.9
The Volunteers were able to rise two spots in the Hoops Nerd Ratings without actually having played a game since last weeks rankings, owing to losses by West Virginia and Marquette. Of the six players who have played at least 49% of Tennessee's minutes this season, Chris Lofton has the lowest effective field goal percentage. The Vols have played a very strong non-conference schedule, due partially to the fact that they stepped up on short notice and took Georgetown's spot in a game in Seattle vs. Gonzaga.

5. Marquette (2)
+20.9
West Virginia is to blame for Marquette's three-spot tumble down the Hoops Nerd Ratings, having beaten the Golden Eagles by 15 points on Sunday. There is an interesting three-team race shaping up in these early moments of Big East play. Myself and Jeff Sagarin have Marquette atop the conference, Ken Pomeroy has West Virginia as number one, and the national media and Big East bloggers both prefer Georgetown.

6. Michigan St. (7)
+20.3
The narrow margin (six points) of the home win over Minnesota might have the Spartans seeing Golden Gophers in their dreams/nightmares in anticipation of what could be their next big test, a January 20 trip to Minnesota. Not that that is all bad: according to some, the appearance of a gopher in one's dream may be a pun on "go for it" and thus an indicator of subconscious initiative and drive to achieve one's goals.

7. West Virginia (5)
+20.1
Losing to Notre Dame on Thursday hurt, but the pain was quickly ameliorated by a Sunday win over Marquette. New Mountaineers coach Bob Huggins apparently called on Southern Cal's Tim Floyd for some defensive advice, a call which yielded the triangle-and-2 that ultimately confounded the Golden Eagles.

8. Clemson (14)
+19.0
A win over Alabama and (more significantly) a two-point overtime loss the North Carolina have vaulted the Tigers up six spots in these ratings. Clemson's collapse last season is nearing Platonic form status as the collapse against which all others are measured - the cautionary tales in media and casual conversation about the soft undefeated teams (like Vanderbilt this season, some might say) never fail to invoke last year's Tigers. Does the ubiquity of their failure bother them as much as the incessant invocation of or allusion to same bothers me?

9. Wisconsin (8)
+19.0
Opening the Big Ten schedule with wins over Michigan and Iowa is a nice, soft introduction to what could be a very arduous season. Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan St., Minnesota and Ohio St. (and maybe even Penn St.) are all serious contenders for the Big Ten crown, making each teams' conference schedule a virtual minefield of potential losses - luckily for Wisconsin, however, the team does not have to travel to Michigan St. this season. The Badgers have the best defense in the country, according to kenpom.com.

10. Georgetown (10)
+18.9
Since the last installment of these ratings, the Hoyas have played only one game, beating Rutgers (yawn). Not surprisingly, Georgetown's offense is really slow and really efficient. The Hoyas lead the country in two-point field goal percentage, a leading indicator of tournament success.

Hoops Nerd Ratings Teams 11 - 30

11. Xavier (15), +18.6
12. Indiana (9), +18.5
13. Mississippi (11), +18.3
14. Drake (16), +18.1
15. Texas A&M (17), +18.0
16. UCLA (24), +16.8
17. Notre Dame (12), +16.7
18. Florida (20), +15.8
19. Memphis (22), +15.6
20. Texas (21), +15.4
21. Arkansas (19), +15.3
22. Pittsburgh (18), +15.1
23. New Mexico (13), +14.7
24. Syracuse (25), +14.7
25. Butler (NR), +13.9
26. Mississippi St. (NR), +13.9
27. Gonzaga (29), +13.9
28. Washington St. (NR), +13.7
29. Minnesota (28), +13.5
30. Oklahoma (30), +13.3

New this Week: Butler, Mississippi St., Washington St.
Disappearing this Week: Arizona, South Carolina, Florida St.
On the Cusp: Louisville, Ohio St., Arizona, Vanderbilt, Florida St.

Extended Holiday Break ending in 3...2...1...

This is the season's first set of Hoops Nerd Ratings that completely disregard preseason projections - the weight assigned to the current season is now 100%. The preseason projections did not separate offense from defense, but instead was built by one single +/- points per 67 possessions number. Now, free from the shackles of those crude projections, offense and defense are treated as the insular categories that they are.

The Hoops Nerd Ratings are explained here. Since the preseason projections are now disregarded, and offense and defense are calculated separately, the regression model in the aforelinked explanation reigns in two different types (offense and defense) of aberrant performances. The Hoops Nerd Ratings are expressed in plus or minutes points per 67 possessions.

1. Duke (Last Ratings [12/10]: 1)
Hoops Nerd Rating: +25.8
Best Fall 2007 Win: Marquette
Worst Fall 2007 Loss: Pittsburgh
Fall 2007 MVP: Jon Scheyer

2. Marquette (8)
HNR: +20.8
Best Win: Wisconsin
Worst Loss: Duke
MVP: Lazar Hayward

3. North Carolina (4)
HNR: +20.7
Best Win: Ohio St.
Worst Loss: n/a
MVP: Tyler Hansbrough

4. Kansas (2)
HNR: +20.4
Best Win: Arizona
Worst Loss: n/a
MVP: Mario Chalmers

5. West Virginia (6)
HNR: +20.0
Best Win: New Mexico St.
Worst Loss: Oklahoma
MVP: Alex Ruoff

6. Tennessee (3)
HNR: +20.0
Best Win: West Virginia
Worst Loss: Texas
MVP: Tyler Smith

7. Michigan St. (5)
HNR: +19.5
Best Win: Texas
Worst Loss: UCLA
MVP: Drew Neitzel

8. Wisconsin (7)
HNR: +18.8
Best Win: Texas
Worst Loss: Marquette
MVP: Joe Krabbenhoft

9. Indiana (20)
HNR: +18.7
Best Win: Illinois St.
Worst Loss: Xavier
MVP: D.J. White

10. Georgetown (12)
HNR: +17.9
Best Win: Alabama
Worst Loss: Memphis
MVP: Roy Hibbert

Hoops Nerd Ratings Teams 11 - 30

11. Mississippi (24), +17.9
12. Notre Dame (22), +17.8
13. New Mexico (NR), +17.3
14. Clemson (15), +17.0
15. Xavier (13), +17.0
16. Drake (NR), +16.7
17. Texas A&M (19), +16.5
18. Pittsburgh (17), +15.4
19. Arkansas (11), +15.2
20. Florida (18), +14.9
21. Texas (10), +14.8
22. Memphis (16), +14.7
23. Arizona (NR), +14.6
24. UCLA (9), +14.5
25. Syracuse (NR), +14.4
26. South Carolina (NR), +14.3
27. Florida St. (21), +14.1
28. Minnesota (NR), +14.0
29. Gonzaga (NR), +13.9
30. Oklahoma (NR), +13.9

New this Week: New Mexico, Drake, Arizona, Syracuse, South Carolina, Minnesota, Gonzaga, Oklahoma.
Disappearing this Week: Louisville, Butler, Kentucky, Creighton, Illinois, Washington St., George Mason, BYU.
On the Cusp: Mississippi St., Creighton, Washington St., Connecticut, Butler.

The Hoops Nerd rankings will not be updated this week, basically because of the dearth of games during Finals Week. I will be around later in the week with some other stuff...