Hoops Nerd

This is the third update to the initial Hoops Nerd Ratings. You can find those pre-season ratings here.

Remember, the Hoops Nerd Ratings are expressed in + or - points per 67 possessions. Current season data (heavily regressed!) is given more weight as the season progresses. The Hoops Nerd Ratings are fully explained here.

1. Duke (Last Week: 3)
Hoops Nerd Rating: +23.1
Wins over Davidson (close) and Wisconsin (decidedly not close) delivered Duke to the top spot in this week's ratings. Their only game this week comes at home against a team that lost to Harvard last Saturday, so there is a high probability that the Blue Devils will maintain the pole position in these ratings for at least another week. If only ESPN would cease its blatantly anti-Duke agenda...

2. Kansas (1)
Rating: +22.4
Kansas' Rating improved since last week, but to a lesser extent that Duke's, so the Jayhawks fall to second place. I cannot possibly be the first person to write this, but what the hell: Rod(rick) Stewart is giving Kansas fans a Reason to Believe. Stewart leads the team with a 133.3 offensive rating and a 33.6 assist rate, per kenpom.com.

3. Tennessee (6)
Rating: +21.4
The Volunteers are moving the ball around this season (assists on 67.8% of their made field goals) and hitting their shots (55.3 effective field goal percentage), and playing at the high pace to which they have become accustomed in the Bruce Pearl era. Tennessee moves up this week on the basis of two blowouts, albeit against week competition.

4. North Carolina (4)
Rating: +21.4
Living up to the lofty standard set by Gardner-Webb earlier this season, the Tar Heels beat Kentucky on Saturday. For the North Carolina fan on your Christmas list, some Duke satire.

5. Michigan St. (2)
Rating: +21.4
The Spartans did nothing to deserve the three-spot drop in the Ratings, blowing out North Carolina St. and Jacksonville. Though it is somewhat obscured by the slow pace at which they play, Michigan St. has been totally dominant on the offensive glass, with an offensive rebound percentage of 45.8, second in the nation behind only Pitt.

6. Texas (16)
Rating: +19.4
Beating UCLA in Los Angeles is a pretty big deal. A lesson in context: Texas' offense is leading the nation in points per possession, but they are 17th in points per game.

7. UCLA (7)
Rating: +19.4
The Bruins lost The Big Game to Texas, but there is another one coming this week vs. a Davidson team that followed almost beating North Carolina with almost beating Duke. The best news of the week for UCLA was, of course, that Darren Collison played 26 minutes in a game against George Washington and made a full-blown 39-minute return from injury against Texas.

8. Georgetown (5)
Rating: +19.3
Well of course the Hoyas beat Old Dominion and Fairfield last week, and they should beat Alabama this week. The only top echelon opponent that Georgetown will face before 2008 is Memphis, on December 22nd. As expected, the Hoyas offense has been very good and very, very slow.

9. Wisconsin (8)
Rating: +19.0
A couple of hours from now, the Badgers will tip off in a game against Wofford, and no matter how big the blowout (Vegas says 28.5 points) it will not be enough to eliminate the memory of the terrible beating suffered at Cameron Indoor Stadium last week.

10. Marquette (15)
Rating: +19.0
The last good non-conference game of 2007 for Marquette (they've already played Duke and Oklahoma St.) is at Wisconsin this Saturday. After starting all 34 games last season, Ousmane Barro has come off the bench in every game so far this season; what's up with that?

Hoops Nerd Ratings Teams 11 - 30

11. Louisville (9), +18.9
12. Memphis (11), +18.7
13. West Virginia (21), +18.3
14. Clemson (12), +17.9
15. Kentucky (10), +17.9
16. Xavier (19), +17.5
17. Florida (16), +17.2
18. Arkansas (18), +17.0
19. Pittsburgh (17), +16.8
20. Texas A&M (14), +16.0
21. Indiana (26), +16.0
22. Butler (23), +15.2
23. Notre Dame (27), +15.0
24. Florida St. (25), +14.9
25. Washington St. (22), +14.8
26. George Mason (NR), +14.5
27. Southern Illinois (20), +14.4
28. Illinois (29), +14.4
29. BYU (NR), +14.1
30. Mississippi St. (28), +13.8

New this Week: George Mason, BYU
Disappearing this Week: Ohio St., Missouri
On the Cusp: Oregon, Ohio St., Missouri, Connecticut, Vanderbilt