Hoops Nerd

This is the fourth update to the initial Hoops Nerd Ratings. You can find those pre-season ratings here.

Remember, the Hoops Nerd Ratings are expressed in + or - points per 67 possessions. Current season data (heavily regressed!) is given more weight as the season progresses. The Hoops Nerd Ratings are fully explained here.

1. Duke (Last Week: 1)
Hoops Nerd Rating: +23.8
By adding a thunderous beat-down of Michigan to its resume, Duke is able to maintain its spot atop the Ratings. As has been written in this space before (and as Jonah Keri points out), the biggest difference between last season's Blue Devils and this iteration is that they are faster, playing at the 24th highest adjusted pace in the country.

2. Kansas (2)
Rating: +21.6
The Jayhawks beat up on Eastern Washington (now Stuckey-free and terrible!) and DePaul last week. Hopefully somebody will get Kansas guard Brandon Rush a day-planner book this holiday season.

3. Tennessee (3)
Rating: +20.7
Tennessee had a closer brush with the Mocs than they likely would have expected. The Hoops Nerd Ratings are structured in such a way (for a description of the innards, read here) that if the Volunteers can maintain the healthy margin established between themselves and the rest of the SEC, then they will likely remain very high in the overall ratings.

4. North Carolina (4)
Rating: +20.5
The Tar Heels are 8 - 0 for the first time this century, after blowing out Penn last week. While the prevailing assumption in Chapel Hill is likely that UNC will enter conference play undefeated, the Tar Heels will face four consecutive better-than-one-might-think opponents from December 22nd to January 2: UCSB (+6.9 Hoops Nerd Rating), Nevada (+7.7), Valparaiso (+5.3), and Kent St. (+10.1).

5. Michigan St. (5)
Rating: +20.3
Michigan St. scored two decent non-conference wins last week, over Bradley and Brigham Young (the Spartans were underdogs in the latter). Izzo's is the top offensive rebounding team in the country (47.3 OR%, per kenpom), thanks primarily to Goran Suton (18.0), Raymar Morgan (14.1), and Marquise Gray (12.7).

6. West Virginia (13)
Rating: +20.2
The Mountaineers won two blowouts last week, over Auburn and Duquesne. West Virginia is currently ranked number one in the Pomeroy Ratings, but is stuck in the "also receiving votes" category in the Associated Press Poll (fourth listed in that category, so I suppose that makes them 29th). They are steadily climbing the Hoops Nerd Ratings because (a) they are staying ahead of the Big East pack in terms of efficiency, and (b) each week, current season data is given more weight relative to the pre-season ratings.

7. Wisconsin (9)
Rating: +19.8
The Badgers (having roundly beaten Wofford and narrowly lost to Marquette) are yet another example of a team that is looked more kindly upon by objective rating systems than subjective ones (35th in the AP, 5th in the KP), but for a slightly different reason than West Virginia. Wisconsin has two high profile losses (Duke, Marquette), but has absolutely trounced all other competition. To wit: against the six other opponents (IPFW, Savannah St., Florida A&M, Colorado, Georgia, Wofford), the Badgers have notched an average margin of victory of 32.5 points. The difference in how ratings systems view Wisconsin is rooted in how the systems account for margin of victory. Consider the two rating systems used by Jeff Sagarin, ELO Chess (which is only concerned with which teams beat which teams regardless of margin of victory) and Predictor (which takes degree of victory into account): Wisconsin ranks 35th in the ELO Chess and 13th in the Predictor. Not surprisingly, I'm with Pomeroy/Predictor, not AP/ELO Chess, on this one. While the AP (and ELO Chess) furtively tosses out a win over Savannah St. as meaningless, the truth is that there is still valuable information there, because beating Savannah St. by 47 points (as the Badgers did) is better than beating them by significantly less than that (like Colorado, Creighton and Northwestern have).

8. Marquette (10)
Rating: +19.7
The win over Wisconsin was helpful, and the loss to Duke is looking less and less objectionable as the weeks pass. If Marquette loses again in 2007, something will have gone horribly, horribly wrong, as their four remaining opponents this year are Sacramento St., IPFW, Coppin St., and Savannah St.

9. UCLA (7)
Rating: +19.4
The Bruins needed to overcome an 18 point deficit to win against ambitiously-scheduling Davidson (a team that just can't get over the hump: the Wildcats nearly beat North Carolina and Duke, before blowing the big lead against UCLA). Russell Westbrook (he of the award-winning haircut) is still playing a key role even after the return of Darren Collison.

10. Texas (6)
Rating: +18.9
The Longhorns are unbeaten and will likely remain so until December 22nd, when they face Michigan St. D.J. Augustin ranks in the top 100 nationally in Offensive Rating, Effective Field Goal Percentage, and Assist Rate (all courtesy of kenpom), which essentially makes him the perfect point guard.

Hoops Nerd Ratings Teams 11 - 30

11. Arkansas (18), +18.7
12. Georgetown (8), +18.5
13. Xavier (16), +17.6
14. Louisville (11), +17.5
15. Clemson (14), +17.4
16. Memphis (12), +17.1
17. Pittsburgh (19), +16.4
18. Florida (17), +16.3
19. Texas A&M (20), +16.3
20. Indiana (21), +16.2
21. Florida St. (24), +15.8
22. Notre Dame (23), +15.8
23. Butler (22), +15.0
24. Mississippi (NR), +14.9
25. Kentucky (15), +14.5
26. Creighton (NR), +14.5
27. Illinois (28), +14.4
28. Washington St. (25), +14.4
29. George Mason (26), +14.1
30. BYU (29), +14.1

New this Week: Mississippi, Creighton
Disappearing this Week: Southern Illinois, Mississippi St.
On the Cusp: Missouri, Stanford, Oregon, Mississippi St., Maryland